Goldman Sachs has revised its iron ore price forecast for Q4 2024, cutting the estimate to $85 per ton from $100 per ton. This adjustment is driven by concerns over an oversupply in the global iron ore market, fueled by strong shipments and weakening demand, particularly from China.
Iron ore prices have already dropped 20% since July 2024, hitting a near two-year low of $90 per ton. Despite this, global supply remains robust, with shipments up 2% year-over-year. Goldman analysts suggest that without significant supply cuts, prices could fall further to around $80 per ton to balance the market.
The demand outlook remains bleak, with China’s economic growth forecast downgraded and steel production facing uncertainties. Temporary support may come from Chinese steel mills’ restocking ahead of October’s Golden Week, but it is unlikely to offset the broader market surplus.